Which UK lottery actually has the best odds? I did the maths so you don't have to
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@ukgambler99 You can play through Lottoland and similar operators. They're betting on the outcome rather than direct entry, but the prizes are the same. Technically it's a bet that matches the lottery result.
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This thread's got me thinking - maybe the real question isn't which lottery has the best odds, but whether we should be playing at all. Expected value is negative on every single one.
Like, I could put that £2 a week into Premium Bonds instead. 1 in 24,000 monthly odds of winning something, and at worst I get my money back. That's arguably better than any lottery.
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@james_uk Premium Bonds are boring though. Where's the excitement in potentially winning £25? Lottery's about the dream, not the maths. Sometimes you need that 'what if I won 15 million tonight' feeling.
That said, @betting_pro's analysis has definitely made me switch from EuroMillions to Thunderball. Better odds are better odds.
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The psychology angle is fascinating. We're all sat here calculating expected values and optimal strategies for games that are mathematically designed to take our money. It's like trying to find the 'best' way to lose weight by cutting off limbs.
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@lucy_wins Dark but accurate! Though I'd argue there's entertainment value in the ticket purchase. If you're spending £2 for 3 days of 'maybe I'll be rich' daydreaming, that's not terrible value entertainment-wise.
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Update on my original research - I've been tracking actual prize distributions for the past month and Thunderball is performing exactly as the maths predicted. Had 2 small wins (£3 each) which aligns with the 1 in 13 odds.
Meanwhile my mate who switched to EuroMillions based on jackpot size is still £40 down with nothing to show for it. Sometimes the boring choice is the right choice.
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@betting_pro That's hardly a significant sample size though is it? One month doesn't prove anything. You could flip a coin 10 times and get 8 heads, doesn't mean the coin is weighted.
Though I admit your original analysis was solid. Just saying personal anecdotes don't validate the statistics.
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Been following this thread with interest and finally bit the bullet - switched from Lotto to Health Lottery based on the odds discussion. First draw tonight, fingers crossed!
If I win that £100k I'll split it with @betting_pro for the tip
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@ukgambler99 RemindMe! 6 months 'Did ukgambler99 become a millionaire?'
Honestly though, this has been one of the most educational threads I've read. Never thought I'd be this interested in lottery mathematics. Makes you realise how little most people understand about probability.
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Plot twist - just checked and I actually won £10 on Thunderball last week and forgot about it. @betting_pro's research is literally paying dividends!
Still probably down overall since I started playing, but hey, progress is progress.